Published On: Wed, Oct 8th, 2014

New Poll: Rick Scott, Charlie Crist ‘tied,’ Adrian Wyllie still excluded from debate

The “GOP leaning” 0ptimus firm released their latest Florida governor’s race poll and it was likely great news for Libertarian Adrian Wyllie, yet didn’t yield the results his campaign was seeking.

While Rick Scott and Charlie Crist are in a proverbial dead heat, 40-39 percent, Wyllie pulled 13 percent from likely voters, up two percent since the last 0ptimus poll.

“This week, the two candidates stayed neck and neck, and the only ‘mover’ in the race was Wyllie, who showed gains just outside the margin of error,” said 0ptimus’ founder and analyst Brian Stobie via the Miami Herald.  “We view this is a backlash to the two highly negative campaigns saturating Florida airwaves, particularly from those in our modeled undecided voter universes, who seem to be leading this trend toward Wyllie.”

Despite previous claims that 15% would get Wyllie in upcoming debates, the Florida Press Association now says Wyllie cannot participate in the Oct. 15 debate because the required 15% in a poll needed to be taken prior to Sept. 30.

(continued below)

Rick Scott side Charlie Crist side Adrian Wyllie

The Herald article notes that “The firm uses robo-polling technology that, like all others, misses cellphone-only households (who tend to be more liberal leaning). To get around that limitation, 0ptimus uses large 3,000-6,000 samples in the hopes of catching voters demographically similar to cellphone only voters.”

“0ptimus also weights its polls by using a model that blends the 2010 and 2006 voter performances by party (which gives Republican voters a 3.2 percentage point advantage). If you’re going to model polls in Florida, this is probably the best way to do it for this election because it averages the turnout rates by party of the prior midterms that were, respectively, high watermarks for Democrats and for Republicans.”

Here are 0ptimus’ partisan crosstabs:

Scott Crist Wyllie Unsure
REP 64.9% 15.4% 13.3% 6.4%
DEM 14.9% 66.3% 11.1% 7.6%
NPA 29.5% 42.0% 17.8% 10.8%

Full analysis from The Miami Herald HERE

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About the Author

- Writer and Co-Founder of The Global Dispatch, Brandon has been covering news, offering commentary for years, beginning professionally in 2003 on Crazed Fanboy before expanding into other blogs and sites. Appearing on several radio shows, Brandon has hosted Dispatch Radio, written his first novel (The Rise of the Templar) and completed the three years Global University program in Ministerial Studies to be a pastor. To Contact Brandon email [email protected] ATTN: BRANDON

Displaying 1 Comments
Have Your Say
  1. OrlandoChris says:

    Comparison chart of the Candidates for Florida Governor:
    Adrian Wyllie is clearly our best choice.

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