New general poll shows Democrats ahead by 11 percent as midterm nears
According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted October 8-11 in which there were 1,144 respondents, of whom 991 were registered voters, Congressional Democrats have an 11-point edge going into the midterm elections.
The poll posed the following question: “If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)?”
53% of registered voters said they would vote for a Democrat, while 42% said they would vote for a Republican.
While Democrats and Republicans who were surveyed held the party line, independents leaned heavily toward Democratic candidates, with 52% saying they would vote for a Democrat, and only 38% saying they would vote for a Republican.
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Another significant difference is found between independent men and women. While independent men break toward Republican candidates (46% to 43%), independent women side firmly with Democratic candidates (62% to 29%).
According to RealClearPolitics, in the last two weeks of September, polls put Congressional Democrats up an average of 6.5% over Republicans. Now Democrats are up 7.5%. This average was across ten polls, some of which began prior to the start of the month.
This trending is important to watch as the key indicator for control of the House.
