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Published On: Tue, Nov 17th, 2015

Massachusetts: Trump leads Carson, Bush falling as ‘half’ won’t vote for Jeb Bush

Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to dominate the field of GOP candidates seeking the presidential nomination, according to a survey released Monday by the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Trump leads the Republican field with 31 percent of likely GOP voters listing him as their first choice. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, comes in second at 22 percent. The next closest candidates are U.S. senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, with support rates of 13 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

Trump and Carson combine for 53% of the vote, Rubio and Cruz are another 22% with no other candidate earning 5% or more in the national online survey of 318 likely Republican primary voters by YouGov America under the direction of the UMass Poll.

“Trump and Carson continue to lead the way as they have for longer than many thought they would,” said Brian Schaffner, director of the UMass Poll. But Cruz and Rubio are well positioned to pick up supporters if either or both of the front-runners should stumble, according to Schaffner.

2011 photo/ Gage Skidmore

2011 photo/ Gage Skidmore

The poll also asked respondents to name every candidate they were willing to support in their state’s primary, as well as every candidate for whom they would not be willing to vote. Over half of likely Republican voters said they would be willing to support Carson and Trump, while Jeb Bush attracted the most opposition among Republicans.

Half of all respondents indicated their unwillingness to vote for the former Florida governor.

“These are frightening numbers for Bush. More than half of registered primary voters said they would not be willing to vote for him under any scenario,” said Raymond La Raja, associate director of the UMass Poll. “No other top-tier candidate faces this “wall of unconvinced voters,” he added.

“As other candidates leave the dance floor and disappoint supporters, they are the next most attractive dance partners,” La Raja said.

The survey, conducted from Nov. 5-13, found that if either Trump or Carson were to drop out of the primary race, the other stands to benefit the most. When respondents were asked about their second GOP choice, 36 percent of Trump supporters named Carson as their alternate, while 30 percent of Carson supporters named Trump as their backup candidate.

The poll further points to the “anti-establishment mood” of Republican voters, who seem strongly opposed to nominating another career party leader, Schaffner said.

“For supporters of Trump and Carson, this is not just a protest vote,” La Raja said. “They actually think these candidates are best positioned to win the general election. That is fascinating given the weakness of their support among political elites and their total lack of government experience.”

While Trump leads the poll, nearly one-third of Republican voters said they would not consider voting for him. “Trump appears to have flatlined,” La Raja said. “He needs to knock out Carson and Cruz to move forward, but his persuadable voters are fewer than other insurgent candidates.”

photo/ donkeyhotey

photo/ donkeyhotey

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About the Author

- Roxanne "Butter" Bracco began with the Dispatch as Pittsburgh Correspondent, but will be providing reports and insights from Washington DC, Maryland and the surrounding region. Contact Roxie aka "Butter" at [email protected] ATTN: Roxie or Butter Bracco

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  1. Dave Francis says:

    Article I, Section 8, clause 4 of the Constitution entrusts the federal legislative branch with the power to “establish a uniform Rule of Naturalization.” This clear textual command for uniformity establishes that the federal government, specifically Congress, is responsible for crafting the laws that determine how and when non-citizens can become naturalized citizens of the United States. But control over naturalization does not necessarily require full control over immigration.

    This information is definitely worth reading from (CAPS) http://www.capsweb.org/fall-2015-newsletter, which fully explains the risks from growing problem with the Anchor Baby syndrome; (birthright Citizenship) and the massive costs that is applied to US taxpayers. Not sure how much information reaches the public from CAPS website? There web pages reflects the huge problems of illegal immigration financial support, that is financially asphyxiating the State of California. It is not only California that is suffering, but all 50 states today from not only entitlement, but physical and our social indifference.

    It’s beyond my understanding that we have thousands of Veterans who have died, owing to poor healthcare after returning from foreign wars. Then we have Senior citizens, who have been neglected and ignored who started employment of an early age and paid without questioning the Social Security system and now are told they cannot claim a few extra dollars to survive, while King Obama has approved of a hundred thousand Syrian refugees who will be able to tap welfare payments, and a whole host of other programs. This makes me sick and disgusted that this bungling presidency always has welfare for the 12 million (is his majesty serious about this populace figure?); Illegal aliens and refugees. Another $40 billion dollars in foreign aid while our own citizens and really lawful immigrants? Yet this incompetent government is paying out $100 billion to 200 Billion dollars in pandering to illegal parents and there children.

    I HAVE HAD ENOUGH, SO MY VOTE IS FOR DONALD TRUMP. HE WILL ENFORCE ALL LAWS. TRUMP AS PRESIDENT WILL REPEAL EVERY EXECUTIVE ORDER THAT OBAMA HAS FORCED UPON US.

    FIRST TWO ISSUES THAT WILL IMMEDIATELY GAIN ATTENTION ON PRESIDENT TRUMPS DESK, WILL BE THE BUILDING OF THE WALL AND MANDATORY E-VERIFY, WITH NO OMISSION OF ANY US BUSINESS.

    The consequential agenda of other then Presidential candidates Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz seems to me very weak or it doesn’t strengthen LEGAL IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT. You will not get any true facts from the Leftist press as they defy the evidence and prefer to author articles out of context, so far access and limiting the reach of an American audience. It never surprised one bit that I had either been banned from standout Democratic oriented digital newspapers, or some very sorry excuse to keep me from leaving any comments.

    CAPS QUESTIONED: More than 300,000 babies are born in the U.S. to illegal immigrants each year. Under current policy, when a citizen of another country gives birth to a child on U.S. soil, whether here as a tourist or illegally, the baby automatically gets U.S. citizenship along with taxpayer-funded benefits. And once citizenship is obtained, the parents eventually become eligible for U.S. citizenship and benefits too. Then the parents’ extended families can apply for citizenship. The U.S. and Canada are the only two developed nations that still allow birthright citizenship.

    CAPS asks, “Why should a citizen of another country who has broken our laws be rewarded with U.S. citizenship and taxpayer benefits for them, their children and their extended family? That’s not fair to those who are following the rules to immigrate here the right way. And it’s not fair to the American taxpayer either.”

    Several Presidential candidates have called for ending birthright citizenship, citing constitutional scholars who say the current policy fundamentally misinterprets the citizenship clause in the 14th Amendment. France, Germany, Japan, the United.Kingdom and most developed countries around the world ended birthright citizenship decades ago. CAPS believe it’s time for the U.S. to end it too.

    Earlier in the year, sparked by California’s historic drought, CAPS ran a TV ad in the Los Angeles and Sacramento markets linking California’s declining environment to immigration driven population growth.

    The ad featured a child asking, “If Californians are having fewer children, why are there so many cars? If Californians are having fewer children, why isn’t there enough water? If Californians are having fewer children, where are all the people coming from?”

    CAPS made the point that nearly 100 percent of California’s growth over a ten-year period came from immigration and births to immigrants and that more people means more cars and trucks.

    Our primary solution to reversing California’s environmental decline, while not politically correct or convenient, is to slow mass immigration, so we can slow population growth and save some California for tomorrow for our children and grandchildren. As a result of this ad, CAPS received more TV, radio and print media attention than ever before in its history.
    Coverage continued for the entire month of June and included FOX, ABC, NBC, U.S. News & World Report, Los Angeles Times, Sacramento Bee and The Washington Times, to name a few.
    Want the truth in news, try ONE AMERICAN NEWS NETWORK. ONLY available on cable, but it exists as its honest reporting, without biased, US and world wide 7/24, with no commercial ads at all.

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