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Published On: Tue, Oct 16th, 2012

Global Warming stopped 16 years ago, but critics say that’s ‘misleading’

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week, published by the Daily Mail.

photo/Agrant141 per wikimedia commons

The data indicates that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures. This ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996.

Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’, but he was convinced that the current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two, the report added.

The report quoted other climate scientists who said that the computer models used by the Met Office are flawed and that the climate is far more complex than the models assert.

Professor Judith Curry, chair of School of Earth and Atmospheric Science at America’s Georgia Tech university, was quoted as saying,

“Climate models are very complex, but they are imperfect and incomplete. Natural variability [the impact of factors such as long-term temperature cycles in the oceans and the output of the sun] has been shown over the past two decades to have a magnitude that dominates the greenhouse warming effect.

“It is becoming increasingly apparent that our attribution of warming since 1980 and future projections of climate change needs to consider natural internal variability as a factor of fundamental importance.”

Global Warming supporters have been quick to say the assumption and that snapshot is ‘misleading’ and labeled the Daily Mail as a ‘Conservative’ news source and ‘tabloid.’

The British Met Office (Britian’s “NOAA”) responded to the article Sunday, and continues to address with comments in the Met Office News Blog.

Again here’s an excerpt. You can read the whole post from the link above.

The linear trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an exceptionally strong El Nino) to August 2012 (coming at the tail end of a double-dip La Nina) is about 0.03°C/decade, amounting to a temperature increase of 0.05°C over that period, but equally we could calculate the linear trend from 1999, during the subsequent La Nina, and show a more substantial warming.As we’ve stressed before, choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system. If you use a longer period from HadCRUT4 the trend looks very different. For example, 1979 to 2011 shows 0.16°C/decade (or 0.15°C/decade in the NCDC dataset, 0.16°C/decade in GISS). Looking at successive decades over this period, each decade was warmer than the previous – so the 1990s were warmer than the 1980s, and the 2000s were warmer than both. Eight of the top ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade.

Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen by about 0.8ºC. However, within this record there have been several periods lasting a decade or more during which temperatures have risen very slowly or cooled. The current period of reduced warming is not unprecedented and 15 year long periods are not unusual.

The below graph which shows years ranked in order of global temperature was not included in the response to Mr Rose, but is useful in this context as it illustrates the point made above that eight of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past decade.

NOTE THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS 0.8 C

 

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About the Author

- Writer and Co-Founder of The Global Dispatch, Brandon has been covering news, offering commentary for years, beginning professionally in 2003 on Crazed Fanboy before expanding into other blogs and sites. Appearing on several radio shows, Brandon has hosted Dispatch Radio, written his first novel (The Rise of the Templar) and completed the three years Global University program in Ministerial Studies to be a pastor. To Contact Brandon email [email protected] ATTN: BRANDON

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  1. Scientists mimic ‘Day After Tomorrow’ film, says global warming leading to colder weather - The Global Dispatch says:

    […] The temperature change which was so alarming in the data presented as early as 2012 was 0.8 warmer over 160 years – chart below. More here […]

  2. Brandon Jones says:

    cant we be good stewards of the planet without the hysteria politics and deceptions

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