American Meteorological Society’s new study on global warming reduces forecasts by 30 to 45%
Global warming skeptics will not be surprised by the news that American Meteorological Society’s “Journal of Climate” study points to “substantially lower[ed]” forecasts of potential temperature increases as authors noted that the climate change is “not as bad as we thought.”
This new study, authored by climatologist Judith Curry (Georgia Institute of Technology) and mathematician Nick Lewis, downgrade the global temperature increases by 30-45% compared to the forecasts of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“Our results imply that, for any future emissions scenario, future warming is likely to be substantially lower than the central computer model-simulated level projected by the IPCC, and highly unlikely to exceed that level,” said Lewis.
The study predicts temperature increases of 1.66C and 1.33C compared to the IPCC models’ more dramatic predictions of 3.1C and 1.9C, respectively, a reduction ranging from 45-30%.
A study by University of Exeter’s Peter Cox concluded that the most dire of the U.N.’s climate change models were almost certainly too high.
“Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate sensitivities,” said Cox. The scientists significantly narrowed the range of possible temperature changes from the U.N.’s widely variable range of 1.5 – 4.5C to a more moderate 2.2 – 3.4C, with a best estimate of an increase of 2.8C by 2100.”
CORRECTION TO THIS POST: This evaluation of the Cox study was falsely equated to this Curry and Lewis paper. See his comments below: “Our study (published in Nature earlier this year) estimates a likely range of ECS of 2.2-3.4 deg C, which hardly overlaps at all with the low values of ECS stated in the abstract of the Curry & Lewis paper (95% confidence limits 1.05-2.45 degC).To make the difference even clearer, our study reports a median value of ECS of 2.8 deg C (which is very similar to the IPCC central estimate), but Curry & Lewis claim a median ECS of 1.5 deg C.”
photo/ Pete Linforth
[…] scientist Judith Curry co-authored a study published in April that found the IPCC models likely overestimated warming by 30 to 45 percent. In a recent blog post, Curry said the UN’s new report used “climate […]
Dear Brandon
You say in your article that the new study “aligns with a separate study by University of Exeter’s Peter Cox”, but that is untrue. Our study (published in Nature earlier this year) estimates a likely range of ECS of 2.2-3.4 deg C, which hardly overlaps at all with the low values of ECS stated in the abstract of the Curry & Lewis paper (95% confidence limits 1.05-2.45 degC).To make the difference even clearer, our study reports a median value of ECS of 2.8 deg C (which is very similar to the IPCC central estimate), but Curry & Lewis claim a median ECS of 1.5 deg C.
Regards
Peter Cox