New global warning study backtracks on ‘Catastrophic’ warnings, almost all models have ‘overestimated warming’
A new study published in the journal Nature by top climate scientists points to data contrasting the shocking warnings of underwater cities, extinction of polar bears and Al Gore graphs.
The study’s conclusion says it is “renewing hope that we may yet be able to avoid global warming exceeding [3.6 °F].”
For the last 25 years, the UN has had the same prediction of the impact of carbon dioxide: That will warm the Earth by between 2.7 – 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit if emissions continue at the current rate and levels end up at double the pre-industrial level.
photo/ Pete Linforth
This new study uses a new method to determine that the actual likely range of warming would be narrower: between 4 – 6.1°F. The study finds just a 1% chance of an increase over 8.1°F degrees.
Past models have over-predicted warming. A 2013 study in the journal Nature Climate Change found that out of 117 climate predictions made in the 1990’s, three were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated warming.
The new model “better estimates future changes based on the fluctuations seen in historical data,” study co-author Chris Huntingford, a climate modeler at the U.K.’s Centre for Ecology and Hydrology told Fox News.
The authors caution that governments must still work hard to prevent global warming.
“The current warming of one degree Celsius [1.8 °F] has already changed our climate significantly. The frequency of heat waves has increased,” lead author Peter Cox, a mathematics professor at the University of Exeter, added.
Cox, who has been a lead author on the UN’s past climate estimates, says that expected warming is in the sweet spot for where action makes sense.
“Climate sensitivity is high enough to demand action, but not so high that it is too late to avoid dangerous global climate change,” Cox said.
RELATED…
Climate Change models are biased and wrong
Joe Bastardi: climate change hysteria has become ‘witchcraft’ deceiving the public
Pets to blame for global warming
Global warming will result in ‘flying boulders’
Earthworms causing climate change
photo/ Darwin Laganzon
