Nate Silver: Republicans are now slight favorites to capture the Senate

The man who received a bunch of accolades and credibility after picking the victor of the 2012 Presidential race so accurately is back with some thoughts and predictions on the 2014 US Senate elections–and it is looking promising for the Grand Old Party.

Political predictor, Nate Silver wrote Sunday that his US Senate prediction of a “toss-up” issued 9 months ago is now revised–“We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber”.

He attributes the adjustment to President Obama’s falling approval ratings and a better crop of Republican candidates compared to the previous two elections.

Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races.

The stat-man describes in the post the factors taken into account for the prediction, which he encourages people to read with some caution, that include the national environment and the “enthusiasm gap”, incumbency and candidate quality among others.

US Capitol
Image/National Park Service