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How the world is divided on global warming, James Hansen and climate change

“If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit [between now and] the year 2025 to 2050…. The rise in global temperature is predicted to … caus[e] sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of the next century.”—Philip Shabecoff, “Global Warming Has Begun.”New York Times, June 24, 1988.

photo/ Pete Linforth

Thirty years ago, June 23, 1988, that NASA’s Dr. James Hansen testified before Congress, warning about the coming catastrophe to be caused by global warming. Hansen and fellow scientists the decade prior warned of an ice age, the effects of global cooling, which was based on the 1971 paper Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate (Rasool 1971) that speculated if aerosol levels increase 6 to 8 fold, it could trigger an ice age.

Schneider published a correction in 1974 that climate warming was the real issue. The Broecker paper published in in 1975 had this title: “Climate change: Are we on brink of pronounced global warming?” According to Broecher, the answer was “yes” and the new name was born: “global warming.”

So, 30 years later and the headlines divide the public much like opinion.

In the Wall Street Journal: “He called Scenario A “business as usual,” as it maintained the accelerating emissions growth typical of the 1970s and ’80s.  This scenario predicted the earth would warm 1 degree Celsius by 2018.  Scenario B set emissions lower, rising at the same rate today as in 1988.  Mr. Hansen called this outcome the “most plausible,” and predicted it would lead to about 0.7 degree of warming by this year.  He added a final projection, Scenario C, which he deemed highly unlikely: constant emissions beginning in 2000.  In that forecast, temperatures would rise a few tenths of a degree before flatlining after 2000.

This snow filled photo was proved to be faked by the AP

“Thirty years of data have been collected since Mr. Hansen outlined his scenarios – enough to determine which was closest to reality.  And the winner is Scenario C.  Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015-16.  Assessed by Mr. Hansen’s model, surface temperatures are behaving as if we had capped 18 years ago the carbon-dioxide emissions responsible for the enhanced greenhouse effect.  But we didn’t.  And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong.  Models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago.”

Later they listed the failed predictions: “Several more of Mr. Hansen’s predictions can now be judged by history.  Have hurricanes gotten stronger, as Mr. Hansen predicted in a 2016 study?

No.

Satellite data from 1970 onward shows no evidence of this in relation to global surface temperature.  Have storms caused increasing amounts of damage in the U.S.?  Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show no such increase in damage, measured as a percentage of gross domestic product.  How about stronger tornadoes?  The opposite may be true, as NOAA data offers some evidence of a decline.  The list of what didn’t happen is long and tedious.”

Real photo of lake, no snow

Of course, read ABC and get a different view: “Earth is noticeably hotter, the weather stormier and more extreme. Polar regions have lost billions of tons of ice; sea levels have been raised by trillions of gallons of water. Far more wildfires rage.

“Over 30 years — the time period climate scientists often use in their studies in order to minimize natural weather variations — the world’s annual temperature has warmed nearly 1 degree F (0.54 degrees C), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And the temperature in the United States has gone up even more — nearly 1.6 degrees.”

Here’s the quote they include:

“The biggest change over the last 30 years, which is most of my life, is that we’re no longer thinking just about the future,” said Kathie Dello, a climate scientist at Oregon State University in Corvallis. “Climate change is here, it’s now and it’s hitting us hard from all sides.”

It’s here?

Well, not if we examine the WSJ analysis.

Al Gore’s hockey stick, climategate, tons of conflicting studies and now we are more divided on the topic than ever.

photo/ Darwin Laganzon

In the late 1980s, the UN claimed that if global warming were not checked by 2000, rising sea levels would wash entire countries away.

The San Jose Mercury News reported on June 30, 1989 that a “senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.”

Global concerns didn’t get worse.

Environmentalist write George Monbiot wrote in the UK Guardian that within “as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both.”

In 2002, about 930 million people around the world were undernourished, according to U.N. data. by 2014, that number shrank to 805 million.

Rajendra Pachauri, the former head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in 2007 that if “there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late.”

“What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment,” he said.

In 2009, the head of Canada’s Green Party wrote that there was only “hours” left to stop global warming.

photo courtesy of Fathom Events

“We have hours to act to avert a slow-motion tsunami that could destroy civilization as we know it,” Elizabeth May, leader of the Greens in Canada, wrote in 2009. “Earth has a long time. Humanity does not. We need to act urgently. We no longer have decades; we have hours. We mark that in Earth Hour on Saturday.”

Also in 2009, British PM Gordon Brown warned there was only “50 days to save the world from global warming,” the BBC reported. According to Brown there was “no plan B.” That summer, Prince Charles said in July 2009 that there would be “irretrievable climate and ecosystem collapse, and all that goes with it.”

Then there’s climategate

Michael Mann doctored the famous temperature “hockey stick” and disclosed some of his dishonest handling of data in the “Climategate” e-mails.

Almost exactly two years since damning email messages were released from Great Britain’s University of East Anglia showing a pattern of deception and collusion between scientists involved in spreading the global warming myth, a new batch of such correspondence has emerged.

MegaUpload had the entire set of memos – 5,000 in all.

From the Telegraph:

Breaking news: two years after the Climategate, a further batch of emails has been leaked onto the internet by a person – or persons – unknown. And as before, they show the “scientists” at the heart of the Man-Made Global Warming industry in a most unflattering light. Michael Mann, Phil Jones, Ben Santer, Tom Wigley, Kevin Trenberth, Keith Briffa – all your favourite Climategate characters are here, once again caught red-handed in a series of emails exaggerating the extent of Anthropogenic Global Warming, while privately admitting to one another that the evidence is nowhere near as a strong as they’d like it to be.

In other words, what these emails confirm is that the great man-made global warming scare is not about science but about political activism. This, it seems, is what motivated the whistleblower ‘FOIA 2011’ (or “thief”, as the usual suspects at RealClimate will no doubt prefer to tar him or her) to go public.

In 2012, the United Nations Foundation President Tim Wirth told Climatewire that Obama’s second term was “the last window of opportunity” to impose policies to restrict fossil fuel use. Wirth said it’s “the last chance we have to get anything approaching 2 degrees Centigrade,” adding that if “we don’t do it now, we are committing the world to a drastically different place.”

France’s Laurent Fabius met with Secretary of State John Kerry on May 13, 2014 to talk about world issues he said “we have 500 days to avoid climate chaos.”

Global warming has been re-branded as “climate change” but has been blamed on earthwormscattle and household pets.

“In their efforts to promote their ‘cause,’” Judith Curry told Congress in 2015, “the scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously understating the uncertainties associated with the climate problem.”

HERE’S FACT: Since 1979, the global temperature has risen….ready, 0.18 degrees.

Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015-16.

On the DISPATCH: Headlines  Local  Opinion

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About the Author

- Writer and Co-Founder of The Global Dispatch, Brandon has been covering news, offering commentary for years, beginning professionally in 2003 on Crazed Fanboy before expanding into other blogs and sites. Appearing on several radio shows, Brandon has hosted Dispatch Radio, written his first novel (The Rise of the Templar) and completed the three years Global University program in Ministerial Studies to be a pastor. To Contact Brandon email [email protected] ATTN: BRANDON

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